While the risk of a full downward employment-demand-price spiral (a hysteresis type effect) is relatively low, it could manifest itself in lower incomes for poorer households and widening inequality which was one of the key outcomes of the 2008 crisis. A second-round feedback loop into financial markets should also not be ruled out as this picture becomes clearer. Policy makers should seek to avoid this outcome and invest now in bolstering labor market opportunities for those whose jobs and earnings potential are negatively affected by the COVID-19 crisis. While the labor market is certainly not as vibrant as it was in 2019, both the number of people unemployed and the unemployment rate are at about the same level they were in early 2014, a full five years into President Barack Obama's administration and 41/2 years after the recession ended. I doubt that then-Vice President Biden thought that was a jobs crisis. Even during the pandemic, the economy has generated a historic increase of 12.3 million jobs since April. The third quarter's 33.1 percent gross domestic product growth rate was an unexpected historic high, and the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now model is forecasting a very strong growth rate, 11.2 percent, for the fourth quarter. There are already jobs available that could be filled if people felt safe working. At the end of October (the most recent month for which data is available), the economy had 6.7 million job openings. That's more than in any month during the entire Obama administration, and over a million more than when Obama and Biden left office. The real crisis is a lack of workers, not a lack of jobs. According to the National Federation of Independent Businesses' monthly survey for the end of November, finding qualified employees was the No. 1 problem businesses faced. Nearly half of these businesses hired or tried to hire employees, and nearly 90 percent of them reported few or no qualified applicants. For now, though, with the approval and widespread distribution of coronavirus vaccines, the U.S. economy would be free to soar as Americans return to work, with no need for even more government stimulus spending. But that will happen only if the next president resists the urge to use the pandemic to "fundamentally transform" America by implementing programs that swell the government rather than the economy.⦁India's economy shows signs of recovery as Covid-19 cases decline.
